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By Adam Azim | Director Public Opinions| Washington DCGiven that the foundation of American liberty and society is based on John Stuart Mill’s “Utilitarianism” as manifested by Thomas Jefferson’s “Declaration of Independence”, strategy then becomes a matter of four elements: 1)The strategy itself, 2)the objectives that one seeks to accomplish through the execution of a strategy, 3)identifying and coping with the challenges that emerge as the strategy unfolds, and 4)the opportunities that arise in accomplishing the objectives through the course of executing a strategy.
With that said, it becomes a matter of curiosity as to whether Donald Trump’s soft rhetoric and sentiment toward Russia is the strategy to some bigger objective that no one can see at the moment or whether detente (the warming of relations) with Russia is the objective. There are some, if not many, individuals who argue or insinuate that Mr. Trump seeks detente as the objective of his policy toward Russia. They use his appointment of Rex Tillerson as well as Donald Trump Jr.’s previous statements of how Russia forms “a disproportionate amount” of Trump assets (reported by Carl Bernstein on CNN) as evidence to argue that Russia and Trump essentially click and thus detente with Russia becomes Trump’s objective.
Others cite detente with Russia as a means of weakening Russia’s position in the Middle East given the success the Obama Administration had with somewhat balancing the playing field in Syria between opposition forces and Assad after the Obama Administration talked Russia into removing chemical weapons out of Assad’s control.
But given that Russia has had continued success in gradually pulling Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Turkey, Gulf Arab states, and China through oil and gas deals out of America’s grip and forming a de facto “eastern bloc” that is opposed to the United States, will detente as a strategy or objective actually help the United States in regaining an upper hand over Russia in international affairs? Or will detente enable Russia to extract concessions from the United States and thus weaken America’s position as opposed to strengthen it? It is critical that detente, if pursued by the Trump Administration, be played slowly and softly as opposed to wholeheartedly given the history of Russia as having taken advantage of U.S.-led detente during the Carter Administration by launching an invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and fueling the communist Tudeh Party before the fall of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in that same year. Given the consensus-building in the Eastern World over Syria that Russia seeks to carry out in an Astana conference on January 23, it seems as though Russia is already taking advantage of Mr. Trump’s Russia policy.
Detente, while serving as a means of fending off Russian aggression in the Western Hemisphere during a time of internal balancing for the United States, may lead to American losses in places like the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. If the United States is willing to incur managed losses in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe in the short-term in order to undergo internal balancing and then push back against Russian advances in the long-run, then detente becomes a strategy in strengthening America’s position in the world vis-a-vis Russia. But if Mr. Trump decides to relinquish the Eastern World to Russia and is willing to live with a divided world in which Russia rules the East and America tentatively manages the Western World, then detente for the United States tragically becomes the objective.
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